Viking vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Viking (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Mjondalen travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Viking are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mjondalen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Viking, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 67% versus Mjondalen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 78% | Mjondalen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.96 xG and Mjondalen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.256 / defence 1.191 | Mjondalen attack 0.934 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Viking games / 45 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 25%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 4.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Mjondalen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 49% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 1.96 / Mjondalen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.256 / def 1.191 | Mjondalen attack 0.934 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Viking (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Mjondalen xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Mjondalen kick off?
Viking vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Mjondalen part of?
Viking vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 49% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Viking and Mjondalen in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.26) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.83
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Viking xG
Total xG
3.34
1.38
Mjondalen xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
3%
28.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Viking and 1.38 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Viking have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 11D 15L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 11W 8D 26L from 45 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Viking are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 5D 13L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.04 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 8D 26L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Mjondalen away?
Viking's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.95 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Viking's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Mjondalen?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 71%, Mjondalen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Viking) and 43% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Viking's games and 57% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Viking's matches and 43% of Mjondalen's.
Do Viking and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Viking and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.96 xG and Mjondalen 1.38 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.26 / defence 1.19 against Mjondalen attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 49% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 25%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 78%, Mjondalen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.