Viking 2-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Viking, 1 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.34 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.010 / defence 0.868 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.259. Data: 33 Viking games / 33 Bodo/Glimt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Viking 1.34 / Bodo/Glimt 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.010 / def 0.868 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Viking (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bodo/Glimt xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 2 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 39% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.14x) against Viking's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.78
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Viking xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Viking and 1.25 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Viking have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 44W 12D 4L from 60 games, 2.40 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 19W 8D 3L from 30 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.70 scored and 0.95 conceded. Viking's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 44W 12D 4L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.83 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Viking, 63% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bodo/Glimt 2-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.34 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.14 / defence 0.83, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 39% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Viking winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.