Viking 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 69% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 77% | Bodo/Glimt 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.82 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.201 / defence 1.116 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.090 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.293. Data: 48 Viking games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 90% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Viking 1.82 / Bodo/Glimt 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.201 / def 1.116 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.090 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.09x) against Viking's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.81
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Viking xG
Total xG
3.40
1.57
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Viking and 1.57 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Viking have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 21W 12D 15L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 36W 8D 4L from 48 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 5D 3L from 23 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.92 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 8D 4L in their last 48 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.96 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Viking, 70% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Viking and 74% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Viking's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Viking's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Viking 1-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.82 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.57 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 32%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 77%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.