Viking 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Viking at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Viking (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Viking, 4 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Viking — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 57% | Bodo/Glimt 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.183 / defence 0.863 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Viking games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Viking 41% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 34%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights