Valerenga 3-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Stabaek travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 1.20 PPG, Stabaek 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Stabaek and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 2–0 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 72% and Stabaek 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 52% | Stabaek 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.08 xG and Stabaek 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.945 / defence 0.979 | Stabaek attack 1.111 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.229. Data: 46 Valerenga games / 46 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 23%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Stabaek 4.35. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 80% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 53% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Valerenga 2.08 / Stabaek 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.945 / def 0.979 | Stabaek attack 1.111 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Stabaek xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Stabaek kick off?
Valerenga vs Stabaek kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Valerenga 3 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Valerenga vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stabaek part of?
Valerenga vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 53% chance of winning, Stabaek a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Valerenga and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 2 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in?
Valerenga (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.07
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.42
1.34
Stabaek xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
3%
35.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.34 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 20W 18D 8L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 12W 16D 18L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (12W 10D 1L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 5W 8D 10L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.35 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 20W 18D 8L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Stabaek away?
Valerenga's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.00 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Stabaek runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 78%, Stabaek at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Valerenga and 74% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Valerenga's games and 70% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Valerenga's matches and 74% of Stabaek's.
Do Valerenga and Stabaek tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Stabaek 3-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.08 xG and Stabaek 1.34 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Stabaek attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 53% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 23%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 52%, Stabaek 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.