Valerenga 1-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valerenga at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Valerenga welcome Rosenborg to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Valerenga have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Valerenga have won 1, Rosenborg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2020, ended 1–0 with Valerenga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 63% versus Rosenborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.83 xG and Rosenborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.061 / defence 0.917 | Rosenborg attack 0.945 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.821 / away 1.214. Data: 30 Valerenga games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 54% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 20%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 5.00. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 54% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Valerenga 1.83 / Rosenborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.061 / def 0.917 | Rosenborg attack 0.945 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.821 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rosenborg xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Rosenborg kick off?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Valerenga 1 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Valerenga vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Rosenborg part of?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 54% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Valerenga and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.98
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.88
1.05
Rosenborg xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.05 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 10D 5L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.83 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 10W 5D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Rosenborg away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Valerenga) and 53% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Valerenga's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 53% of Rosenborg's.
Do Valerenga and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Rosenborg finished level at 1-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.83 xG and Rosenborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Rosenborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 54% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 20%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.83 PPG, Rosenborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.