Tromso 1-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tromso at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Valerenga at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tromso's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Alfheim Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tromso at 1.60 PPG versus Valerenga's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Tromso have won 0, Valerenga 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tromso in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Valerenga in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 53% and Valerenga 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 43% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.74 xG and Valerenga 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.980 / defence 1.302 | Valerenga attack 1.025 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.200. Data: 35 Tromso games / 35 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 41% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 36%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Valerenga 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 41% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Tromso 1.74 / Valerenga 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.980 / def 1.302 | Valerenga attack 1.025 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Tromso (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Valerenga xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Valerenga kick off?
Tromso vs Valerenga kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Valerenga?
Tromso 1 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Tromso vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Valerenga part of?
Tromso vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 41% chance of winning, Valerenga a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Tromso and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Tromso and Valerenga in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.98) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
41%
2.41
23%
4.38
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.34
1.60
Valerenga xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Tromso and 1.60 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 8W 11D 11L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Valerenga's form line: 11W 12D 7L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.17 PPG, Valerenga on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Tromso are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.53 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 11W 12D 7L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.00 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tromso and Valerenga runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tromso
4
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Valerenga?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Tromso) and 60% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tromso's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Tromso's recent games and 60% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Valerenga tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Valerenga 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Valerenga 1-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.74 xG and Valerenga 1.60 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Valerenga attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 41% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 36%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 43%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.17 PPG, Valerenga 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.