Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Sandefjord at Romssa Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tromso's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Romssa Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tromso 2.10 PPG, Sandefjord 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Tromso have won 4, Sandefjord 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Sandefjord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tromso in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 43% versus Sandefjord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 53% | Sandefjord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.49 xG and Sandefjord 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.100 / defence 0.593 | Sandefjord attack 1.036 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.231. Tromso's defence rating of 0.593 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Tromso games / 35 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 53% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 18%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Sandefjord 5.56. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Tromso 40% | Sandefjord 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 53% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Tromso 1.49 / Sandefjord 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.100 / def 0.593 | Sandefjord attack 1.036 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Tromso (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sandefjord xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Sandefjord kick off?
Tromso vs Sandefjord kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Tromso 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Tromso vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Sandefjord part of?
Tromso vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 53% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tromso and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sandefjord?
Record (9 meetings): Tromso 4W | Draws 3 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Tromso and Sandefjord in?
Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tromso's attack rating (1.10) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.44
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.25
0.76
Sandefjord xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tromso and 0.76 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 27W 9D 24L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sandefjord's form line: 24W 10D 26L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.50 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 60%.
Defensively: Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Sandefjord away?
Tromso's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.67 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Tromso or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Tromso won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Tromso 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sandefjord?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 43%, Sandefjord 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Tromso and 67% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Tromso's games and 73% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tromso's matches and 67% of Sandefjord's.
Do Tromso and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.49 xG and Sandefjord 0.76 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.10 / defence 0.59 against Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 53% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 18%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Sandefjord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.50 PPG, Sandefjord 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.