Tromso vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Tromso (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's home record at Alfheim Stadion: 0W 3D 5L from 8 Eliteserien appearances (0.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Tromso against 0.90 for Brann. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Tromso 0W, Brann 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 61% and Brann 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 61% | Brann 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.54 xG and Brann 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.736 / defence 1.394 | Brann attack 1.030 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Tromso's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Tromso games / 48 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 31% | Draw 26% | Brann 43%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 75% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 31% | Draw 26% | Brann 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Tromso 1.54 / Brann 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.736 / def 1.394 | Brann attack 1.030 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Brann (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Brann xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Brann kick off?
Tromso vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Brann part of?
Tromso vs Brann is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 31% chance of winning, Brann a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Tromso and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 0W.
What form are Tromso and Brann in?
Tromso (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.74) and Brann's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.03x) against Tromso's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
31%
3.23
26%
3.78
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.37
1.82
Brann xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
5%
19.97
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Tromso and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Tromso and 1.82 for Brann, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 3W 6D 9L from 18 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 11L across 18 games — 0.72 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Tromso against 0.72 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 0W 3D 5L from 8 games — 0.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Brann's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.17 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Brann in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Brann in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Brann have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.38 PPG; Brann away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-5 on 29 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tromso
2
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Brann have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Tromso 0-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 75%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Tromso and 62% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Tromso's games and 50% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Tromso's matches and 62% of Brann's.
Do Tromso and Brann tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brann in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Tromso and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.54 xG and Brann 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.74 / defence 1.39 against Brann attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 31% | Draw 26% | Brann 43%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 61%, Brann 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 0.83 PPG, Brann 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.