Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 13 as Stromsgodset welcome Stabaek to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 3W 4D 3L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Stromsgodset) versus 0.60 (Stabaek). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stabaek in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 2 for Stabaek and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2020, ended 0–4 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 62% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Stabaek 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.15 xG and Stabaek 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.114 / defence 0.905 | Stabaek attack 1.182 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.132. Data: 41 Stromsgodset games / 40 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 19%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Stabaek 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Stabaek 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Stromsgodset 2.15 / Stabaek 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.114 / def 0.905 | Stabaek attack 1.182 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Stabaek xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Stromsgodset 2 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek part of?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 57% chance of winning, Stabaek a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stromsgodset and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Stabaek (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.13
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.37
1.21
Stabaek xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
2%
45.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.21 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 13D 17L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.08 PPG, Stabaek on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Stabaek away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.30 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stromsgodset have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 65%, Stabaek at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stromsgodset and 70% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Stromsgodset's games and 65% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 70% of Stabaek's.
Do Stromsgodset and Stabaek tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Stabaek 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Stabaek 2-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.15 xG and Stabaek 1.21 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Stabaek attack 1.18 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 19%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Stabaek 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.08 PPG, Stabaek 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.