Stromsgodset 1-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Stromsgodset, 0.50 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sandefjord in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Stromsgodset 1W, Sandefjord 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 53% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 65% | Sandefjord 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.18 xG and Sandefjord 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.852 / defence 0.959 | Sandefjord attack 0.715 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Data: 36 Stromsgodset games / 36 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 35% | Sandefjord 23%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Sandefjord 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 70% | Sandefjord 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 35% | Sandefjord 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Stromsgodset 1.18 / Sandefjord 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.852 / def 0.959 | Sandefjord attack 0.715 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sandefjord xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 41% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.71x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.83
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.01
0.83
Sandefjord xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.83 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.00 PPG from 60 outings (16W 12D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.00 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (8W 1D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 12D 32L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.70 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 63%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Stromsgodset and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Stromsgodset's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Sandefjord 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Sandefjord 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.18 xG and Sandefjord 0.83 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Sandefjord attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 35% | Sandefjord 23%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 65%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG, Sandefjord 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.