Stromsgodset 0-4 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 7W 1D 0L from 8 Eliteserien matches — 2.75 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 3W 1D 0L from 4 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 2.75 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Molde trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 62% and Molde 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 62% | Molde 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.35 xG and Molde 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.995 / defence 0.988 | Molde attack 1.173 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.469. Data: 8 Stromsgodset games / 8 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 24% | Molde 46%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 2.17. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 75% | Molde 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 24% | Molde 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Stromsgodset 1.35 / Molde 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.995 / def 0.988 | Molde attack 1.173 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Molde (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Molde xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Stromsgodset 0 - 4 Molde.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 30% chance of winning, Molde a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-0L in 8 | 2.75 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.99x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
30%
3.28
24%
4.22
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.05
1.70
Molde xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
6%
18.02
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.70 for Molde, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 0L across 8 games — 2.75 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 3.00 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Molde in 62%.
Defensively: Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Molde have gone 7W 1D 0L in their last 8 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 2.00 PPG; Molde away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 75%, Molde at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Stromsgodset and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Stromsgodset's games and 75% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stromsgodset's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Molde in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stromsgodset 0-4 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.35 xG and Molde 1.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Molde attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 24% | Molde 46%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Molde 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.