Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bodo/Glimt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 63% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 67% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.883 / defence 1.142 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.224 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Stromsgodset games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 29% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 46%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 2.17. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 29% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Stromsgodset 1.47 / Bodo/Glimt 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.883 / def 1.142 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.224 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Bodo/Glimt xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.42
24%
4.09
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.36
1.89
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.89 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.70 PPG from 30 outings (26W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.40 points per game from 15 outings (11W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.00 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 60%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stromsgodset and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.89 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 29% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 46%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.