Start 0-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Start at 47%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Start vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Rosenborg travel to Sparebanken Sør Arena to take on Start. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 1W 3D 1L at Sparebanken Sør Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Start are significantly better at Sparebanken Sør Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Start, 1 for Rosenborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Start in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 77% versus Rosenborg 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 54% | Rosenborg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.39 xG and Rosenborg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.769 / defence 1.198 | Rosenborg attack 0.705 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.148. Start's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Start games / 42 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 3.85. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Start are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Start 80% | Rosenborg 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Start 1.39 / Rosenborg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.769 / def 1.198 | Rosenborg attack 0.705 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Start (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Start xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rosenborg xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Rosenborg kick off?
Start vs Rosenborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Rosenborg?
Start 0 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Start vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Rosenborg part of?
Start vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Start a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Start and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Start and Rosenborg in?
Start (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Start's attack rating (0.77) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Start's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.69
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Start xG
Total xG
2.36
0.97
Rosenborg xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Start and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Start and 0.97 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Start's recent record stands at 1W 4D 8L from 13 games, a 0.54 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Start have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.54 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Start come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Start have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Rosenborg away?
Start's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.20 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Start or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Start have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Rosenborg runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2026, when Rosenborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Start's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Rosenborg?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Rosenborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Start 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Start and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 80%, Rosenborg 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Start and 20% for Rosenborg.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Start's recent matches and 0% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Start's recent games and 20% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Start and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Start 0-3 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.39 xG and Rosenborg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Start fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Rosenborg attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 47% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 26%, with Start to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 54%, Rosenborg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.54. Form held, and they took the win. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.