Start 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 16 as Start welcome Aalesund to Sparebanken Sør Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's home record at Sparebanken Sør Arena: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Eliteserien appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Aalesund — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Start) versus 0.50 (Aalesund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Start, 1 for Aalesund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2020, ended 2–3 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Start in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 87%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Start 47% and Aalesund 87% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Start 60% | Aalesund 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 2.02 xG and Aalesund 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.865 / defence 1.144 | Aalesund attack 0.855 / defence 1.735. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.388. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.735 — this is suppressing Start's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Start games / 15 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 53% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 26%. Fair-value odds: Start 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Aalesund 3.85. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Start as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Start 50% | Aalesund 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 53% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Start 2.02 / Aalesund 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.865 / def 1.144 | Aalesund attack 0.855 / def 1.735 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Start (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Aalesund xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Aalesund kick off?
Start vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Aalesund?
Start 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Start vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Aalesund part of?
Start vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Start a 53% chance of winning, Aalesund a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Start and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Start and Aalesund in?
Start (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Start's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.63
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Start xG
Total xG
3.38
1.36
Aalesund xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
3%
29.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Start and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Start and 1.36 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Start come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.47 PPG from 15 outings (1W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Start on 0.73 PPG, Aalesund on 0.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Start's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Start come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Start are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.40 scored and 3.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 87%.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Start have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Aalesund away?
Start's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.29 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Start's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Start
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Aalesund?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 1, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Start 1-1 Aalesund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Start see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 43%, Aalesund 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Start and 71% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Start have failed to score in 43% of games; Aalesund in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Start's games and 71% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Start's matches and 71% of Aalesund's.
Do Start and Aalesund tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Start edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat Aalesund 1-0 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 2.02 xG and Aalesund 1.36 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Start fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aalesund landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.74, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 53% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 26%, with Start to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 60%, Aalesund 87%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.73 PPG, Aalesund 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Start win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.