Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Sandefjord to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 3 for Sandefjord and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% versus Sandefjord 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% | Sandefjord 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 xG and Sandefjord 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.863 / defence 0.721 | Sandefjord attack 0.813 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.354. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 46 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 4.55. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Sandefjord 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 / Sandefjord 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.863 / def 0.721 | Sandefjord attack 0.813 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sandefjord xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 51% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Record (9 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.86x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.60
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.17
0.79
Sandefjord xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.79 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 12D 17L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.37 PPG from 46 outings (19W 6D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.37 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 6D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (6W 2D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.48 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 6D 21L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Sandefjord away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.50 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jul 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Sandefjord have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 64%, Sandefjord at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 68% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 73% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 68% of Sandefjord's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 xG and Sandefjord 0.79 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.72 against Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%, Sandefjord 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG, Sandefjord 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.