Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rosenborg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 29% versus Rosenborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 xG and Rosenborg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.911 / defence 0.860 | Rosenborg attack 0.796 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.359. Data: 21 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 21 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 41% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 20% | Rosenborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 41% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 / Rosenborg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.911 / def 0.860 | Rosenborg attack 0.796 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rosenborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 October 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 41% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.80x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.19
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.11
0.93
Rosenborg xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.93 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 3D 10L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.90 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 3D 10L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.90 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 40% (Rosenborg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Rosenborg in 40%; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games; Rosenborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 50% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 xG and Rosenborg 0.93 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Rosenborg attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 41% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.