Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Sarpsborg 08 FF's 20% and Haugesund's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Haugesund 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Haugesund 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and Haugesund 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.808 / defence 1.046 | Haugesund attack 0.600 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.335. Data: 10 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 10 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Haugesund 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 20% | Haugesund 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 / Haugesund 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.808 / def 1.046 | Haugesund attack 0.600 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Haugesund xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.81) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.28
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.98
0.84
Haugesund xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.84 for Haugesund, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 3W 1D 6L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.00 PPG, Haugesund on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Haugesund's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.70 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Haugesund in 30%.
Defensively: Haugesund in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.50 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Haugesund in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sarpsborg 08 FF 25% BTTS, Haugesund 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 25% for Haugesund.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Haugesund in 50%; Haugesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 25% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 25% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and Haugesund 0.84 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Haugesund attack 0.60 / defence 1.20, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 27%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, Haugesund 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.