Sandefjord 0-3 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Stabaek at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 4W 3D 3L at Release Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sandefjord are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 48% versus Stabaek 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 52% | Stabaek 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.00 xG and Stabaek 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.881 / defence 0.803 | Stabaek attack 1.047 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.311. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Sandefjord games / 48 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 18%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Stabaek 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Sandefjord 2.00 / Stabaek 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.881 / def 0.803 | Stabaek attack 1.047 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stabaek kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Sandefjord 0 - 3 Stabaek.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stabaek part of?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 56% chance of winning, Stabaek a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sandefjord and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.88
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.10
1.10
Stabaek xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
2%
40.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.10 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 12D 21L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 12W 16D 20L from 48 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.19 PPG, Stabaek on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (7W 9D 8L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.33 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stabaek away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.25 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stabaek in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 42%, Stabaek 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Sandefjord and 75% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Sandefjord's games and 71% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Sandefjord's matches and 75% of Stabaek's.
Do Sandefjord and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.00 xG and Stabaek 1.10 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Stabaek outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Stabaek attack 1.05 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 56% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 18%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Stabaek win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 52%, Stabaek 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.19 PPG, Stabaek 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.