Sandefjord 1-3 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb meet at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
ODD Ballklubb arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Sandefjord are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Sandefjord winning.
The historical record gives Sandefjord a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 59% versus ODD Ballklubb 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 72% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.89 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.049 / defence 1.487 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.751 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.327. Data: 51 Sandefjord games / 51 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | ODD Ballklubb 3.33. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Sandefjord dominate the H2H record, yet ODD Ballklubb are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | ODD Ballklubb 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Sandefjord 1.89 / ODD Ballklubb 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.049 / def 1.487 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.751 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sandefjord 1 - 3 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 47% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 3W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.75x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.49
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.37
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.48 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 10D 25L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.18 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandefjord are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.31 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 games (1.14 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.20 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 64%, ODD Ballklubb 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Sandefjord) and 48% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 44% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sandefjord's matches and 48% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Sandefjord 1-3 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.89 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.05 / defence 1.49 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 47% | Draw 22% | ODD Ballklubb 30%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 72%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.14 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.