Sandefjord 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 2D 3L at Jotun Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fredrikstad — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.70 (Fredrikstad). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Fredrikstad and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 66% versus Fredrikstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | Fredrikstad 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.003 / defence 1.006 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Data: 59 Sandefjord games / 29 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 4.17. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.70 / Fredrikstad 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.003 / def 1.006 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad part of?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 52% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.16
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.09 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 9W 7D 13L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 7L across 29 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.31 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Fredrikstad away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.64 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Sandefjord
2
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Sandefjord 1-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 64%, Fredrikstad 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sandefjord) and 43% (Fredrikstad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 43% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sandefjord's matches and 43% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Sandefjord and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fredrikstad defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Fredrikstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, Fredrikstad 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.