Sandefjord 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Aalesund at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Sandefjord have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sandefjord's 30% rate and Aalesund's 0% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sandefjord have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Aalesund have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Sandefjord winning.
The historical record gives Sandefjord a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.688 / defence 0.949 | Aalesund attack 0.742 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.191. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Sandefjord games / 6 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Aalesund 4.35. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sandefjord 1.31 / Aalesund 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.688 / def 0.949 | Aalesund attack 0.742 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Aalesund xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Aalesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Aalesund kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Aalesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 47% chance of winning, Aalesund a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sandefjord and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Aalesund?
Record (6 meetings): Sandefjord 4W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Aalesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.69) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
47%
2.15
31%
3.26
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Aalesund xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.84 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sandefjord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandefjord by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Sandefjord's scoring rate against Aalesund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 0%.
Defensively: Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Aalesund in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Early Season
Aalesund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Sandefjord or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aalesund in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Aalesund runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Sandefjord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sandefjord 1-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Aalesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 0% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandefjord's recent games and 50% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Aalesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Aalesund 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Aalesund attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Aalesund 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Sandefjord managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.