Rosenborg 2-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 7 July 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rosenborg stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
ODD Ballklubb's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Rosenborg 3–2 ODD Ballklubb — a Rosenborg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Rosenborg and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 64% versus ODD Ballklubb 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | ODD Ballklubb 55%). Note also that ODD Ballklubb surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Rosenborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.42 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.990 / defence 0.993 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.730 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.474. ODD Ballklubb's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 42 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 43.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.22 | Draw 3.76 | ODD Ballklubb 3.52. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Rosenborg 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 80% (last 10 home games) | ODD Ballklubb 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Rosenborg 1.42 / ODD Ballklubb 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.990 / def 0.993 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.730 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 13) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 45% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 42 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.76
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
14.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.07 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 8D 19L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.26 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 5D 10L from their last 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.31 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg (Home) vs ODD Ballklubb (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.55 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won Rosenborg 5-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2024: ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 65%, ODD Ballklubb 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 60% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rosenborg's games and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out ODD Ballklubb 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.42 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.07 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.26 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.