Rosenborg 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Rosenborg have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Kristiansund BK have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Kristiansund BK's (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rosenborg, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2022, ended Rosenborg 4–4 Kristiansund BK — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 66% and Kristiansund BK 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 69% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.63 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.010 / defence 1.011 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rosenborg's projected output up. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 39 games and Kristiansund BK's last 9.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.13 | Draw 4.09 | Kristiansund BK 3.49. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Rosenborg 1.63 / Kristiansund BK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.010 / def 1.011 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.791 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 47% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 39 games and Kristiansund BK's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.09
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.22 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 12W 6D 14L from 32 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 18L across 32 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 7W 3D 6L from their last 16 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 11L across their last 16 away games, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.22 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Kristiansund BK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Rosenborg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won Kristiansund BK 0-4 Rosenborg.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
2
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 6, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Kristiansund BK 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rosenborg) and 50% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rosenborg's matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 75% of Kristiansund BK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.63 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 47% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 29%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 69%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.