Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Aalesund meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 4W 4D 2L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aalesund arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Rosenborg, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Aalesund — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 4–0 with Rosenborg winning.
The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Aalesund 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.988 / defence 0.861 | Aalesund attack 0.673 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.123. Data: 38 Rosenborg games / 7 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 13%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Aalesund 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Rosenborg dominate the H2H record, yet Aalesund are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aalesund (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 40% | xG Rosenborg 1.84 / Aalesund 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.988 / def 0.861 | Aalesund attack 0.673 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Aalesund xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Aalesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Aalesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Aalesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 66% chance of winning, Aalesund a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rosenborg and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.99) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.67x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 38/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.62
13%
7.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.49
0.65
Aalesund xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
7.98
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
2%
50.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.65 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rosenborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.50 for Aalesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Rosenborg's scoring rate against Aalesund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Aalesund in 0%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Aalesund in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Early Season
Aalesund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Rosenborg or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aalesund in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 0% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rosenborg's recent games and 50% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Aalesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Aalesund 0.65 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Aalesund outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Aalesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 66% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 13%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Aalesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Aalesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.50 PPG, Aalesund 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aalesund scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.