ODD Ballklubb 6-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 5W 1D 2L at Skagerak Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in ODD Ballklubb's favour (2.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ODD Ballklubb lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2020, ended 2–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 40% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Mjondalen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.45 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.988 / defence 1.118 | Mjondalen attack 0.622 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.388. Data: 15 ODD Ballklubb games / 15 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 4.00. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 62% | Mjondalen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.45 / Mjondalen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.988 / def 1.118 | Mjondalen attack 0.622 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mjondalen xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
ODD Ballklubb 6 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 48% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.99x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.62x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.74
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
Mjondalen xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.96 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 9W 1D 5L from 15 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 9L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 9W 1D 5L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Mjondalen away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjondalen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mjondalen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 62%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ODD Ballklubb and 50% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 50% of Mjondalen's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 6-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.45 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.99 / defence 1.12 against Mjondalen attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Mjondalen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjondalen's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.