ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 4W 0D 6L at Skagerak Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kristiansund BK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 1W, Kristiansund BK 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 59% versus Kristiansund BK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.76 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.875 / defence 0.995 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.732 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.375. Data: 54 ODD Ballklubb games / 54 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 55% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 21%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Kristiansund BK 4.76. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 55% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.76 / Kristiansund BK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.875 / def 0.995 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.732 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Kristiansund BK xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 55% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.73x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.28
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.77
1.00
Kristiansund BK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
27.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.00 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 13D 23L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (18W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.17 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 11W 4D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (5W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.30 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 18W 9D 27L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Kristiansund BK away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.37 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 70%, Kristiansund BK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ODD Ballklubb and 59% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 44% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 59% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 25, as ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.76 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 55% | Draw 23% | Kristiansund BK 21%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.24 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.