ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward ODD Ballklubb. A 0.80 PPG lead over Haugesund (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Haugesund and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 50% versus Haugesund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Haugesund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.29 xG and Haugesund 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.919 / defence 0.990 | Haugesund attack 0.672 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Data: 52 ODD Ballklubb games / 52 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 25%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 4.00. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 30% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.29 / Haugesund 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.919 / def 0.990 | Haugesund attack 0.672 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Haugesund xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 47% chance of winning, Haugesund a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.92x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.67x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.50
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.15
0.85
Haugesund xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.85 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 11D 20L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 15W 13D 24L from 52 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.12 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (13W 3D 9L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 7D 13L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 11D 20L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Haugesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.68 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.88 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Haugesund in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Haugesund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Haugesund have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 52%, Haugesund 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (ODD Ballklubb) and 48% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 44% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 48% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 23, as ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.29 xG and Haugesund 0.85 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Haugesund attack 0.67 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 25%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Haugesund 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.42 PPG, Haugesund 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.