ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 1–6 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 57% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.965 / defence 1.028 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.246 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 ODD Ballklubb games / 35 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 25% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 2.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 25% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.17 / Bodo/Glimt 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.965 / def 1.028 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.246 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 25% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
25%
3.96
28%
3.61
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.83
1.66
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.66 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.73 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Bodo/Glimt 1-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.66 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 33/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 25% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 47%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.