Molde 4-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Molde, who have won 7 of the last 8 meetings against Brann — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Brann — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 53% versus Brann 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 66% | Brann 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.97 xG and Brann 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.137 / defence 1.092 | Brann attack 1.192 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.351. Data: 58 Molde games / 58 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 22% | Brann 35%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Brann 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Molde dominate the H2H record, yet Brann are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 22% | Brann 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Molde 1.97 / Brann 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.137 / def 1.092 | Brann attack 1.192 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Brann xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Brann kick off?
Molde vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Brann?
Molde 4 - 0 Brann.
Where is Molde vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Brann part of?
Molde vs Brann is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 43% chance of winning, Brann a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Molde and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Brann?
Record (8 meetings): Molde 7W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Molde and Brann in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.14) and Brann's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.19x) against Molde's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
43%
2.32
22%
4.53
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Molde xG
Total xG
3.73
1.76
Brann xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
5%
20.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Molde and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Molde and 1.76 for Brann, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Molde have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 10D 22L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 33W 13D 12L from 58 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Molde.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (15W 4D 10L).
On the road, Brann have gone 15W 7D 7L from 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.84 scored and 1.28 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Brann in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 26W 10D 22L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Brann have gone 33W 13D 12L in their last 58 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.69 PPG; Brann away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Molde or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Brann in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Molde
0
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 8, Brann have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Molde 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Brann?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 62%, Brann 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Molde and 72% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Molde's games and 62% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Molde's matches and 72% of Brann's.
Do Molde and Brann tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Brann in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Brann 4-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.97 xG and Brann 1.76 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Brann attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 43% | Draw 22% | Brann 35%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 66%, Brann 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brann's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Molde winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.