Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Åråsen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lillestrom haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Åråsen, Lillestrom have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 1.20 PPG clear of Lillestrom in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Lillestrom, 4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 53% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.24 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.812 / defence 1.203 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.971 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.218. Data: 6 Lillestrom games / 36 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Åråsen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lillestrom 1.24 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.812 / def 1.203 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.971 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Åråsen.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Lillestrom 4 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 32% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (8 meetings): Lillestrom 3W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.81) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.97x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.57
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.67
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.42 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 7W 3D 20L from 30 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. Lillestrom haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 11L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 3W 3D 9L from 15 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 20L in their last 30 games (0.80 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 0.80 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Lillestrom
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 53%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lillestrom and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom have failed to score in 40% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lillestrom's games and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 at Åråsen, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.24 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 70%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Lillestrom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.