Lillestrom vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lillestrom welcome Sandefjord to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sandefjord — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Lillestrom have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sandefjord trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 70% and Sandefjord 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Sandefjord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.75 xG and Sandefjord 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.776 / defence 1.089 | Sandefjord attack 0.942 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Lillestrom games / 50 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 44% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Lillestrom 1.75 / Sandefjord 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.776 / def 1.089 | Sandefjord attack 0.942 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sandefjord xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord part of?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 44% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lillestrom and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.58
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.11
1.37
Sandefjord xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.37 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 4D 6L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lillestrom's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.30 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sandefjord away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.78 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 56%, Sandefjord 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lillestrom) and 67% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lillestrom's games and 56% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Lillestrom's matches and 67% of Sandefjord's.
Do Lillestrom and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Lillestrom and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.75 xG and Sandefjord 1.37 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 44% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 28%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Sandefjord 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.