Lillestrom 2-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 25 June 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.20 xG and Rosenborg 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.804 / defence 1.147 | Rosenborg attack 1.076 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.204. Data: 6 Lillestrom games / 39 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 29% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 29% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lillestrom 1.20 / Rosenborg 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.804 / def 1.147 | Rosenborg attack 1.076 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 2 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 29% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Rosenborg away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.08x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.53
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.68
1.49
Rosenborg xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.49 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 2-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.20 xG and Rosenborg 1.49 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Rosenborg attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 29% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 43%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.