Lillestrom 0-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. ODD Ballklubb's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lillestrom: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for ODD Ballklubb, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lillestrom and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 58% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.60 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.848 / defence 0.885 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.984 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.378. Data: 57 Lillestrom games / 57 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 47% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Lillestrom dominate the H2H record, yet ODD Ballklubb are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 47% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.60 / ODD Ballklubb 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.848 / def 0.885 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.984 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
ODD Ballklubb xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom 0 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 47% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Lillestrom 3W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.85x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.05
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.80
1.20
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.20 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lillestrom come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 12D 16L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.25 PPG from 57 outings (19W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lillestrom's home form reads 16W 5D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lillestrom are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.39 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 29W 12D 16L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.89 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 43%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lillestrom) and 54% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lillestrom's recent games and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Lillestrom 0-2 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.60 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.20 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 47% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 58%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.