Lillestrom 4-0 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and jerv meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion.
jerv have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. jerv have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Lillestrom's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of jerv's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.86 xG and jerv 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.036 / defence 0.924 | jerv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.162. Data: 31 Lillestrom games / 1 jerv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | jerv 18%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | jerv 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 5.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | jerv 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Lillestrom 1.86 / jerv 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.036 / def 0.924 | jerv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.91
jerv xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs jerv kick off?
Lillestrom vs jerv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs jerv?
Lillestrom 4 - 0 jerv.
Where is Lillestrom vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs jerv part of?
Lillestrom vs jerv is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 60% chance of winning, jerv a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lillestrom and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and jerv in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. jerv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against jerv's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.85x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.48
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.77
0.91
jerv xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
35.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.91 for jerv, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Lillestrom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, jerv sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for jerv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 4.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. jerv's attacking output running into Lillestrom's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; jerv in 100%.
Defensively: Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Early Season
jerv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and jerv in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while jerv have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Lillestrom or jerv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, jerv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
0
Draws
1
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, jerv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when jerv 1-0 Lillestrom.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play jerv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 100% of jerv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lillestrom's recent games and 100% of jerv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and jerv tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, jerv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat jerv 4-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.86 xG and jerv 0.91 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. jerv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against jerv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | jerv 18%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 0%, jerv 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. jerv managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.