Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 3W 2D 5L at Åråsen Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 0.40 PPG, Haugesund 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Lillestrom hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Haugesund, with 0 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Lillestrom winning.
The historical record gives Lillestrom a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Haugesund 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 66% | Haugesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.77 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.962 / defence 1.179 | Haugesund attack 0.920 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Data: 56 Lillestrom games / 56 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 48% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 3.45. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 48% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Lillestrom 1.77 / Haugesund 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.962 / def 1.179 | Haugesund attack 0.920 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Haugesund xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Haugesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Lillestrom 0 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Haugesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 48% chance of winning, Haugesund a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lillestrom and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 6W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.96) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.30
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.11
1.34
Haugesund xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.34 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 20W 7D 29L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 15W 12D 29L from 56 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.20 PPG, Haugesund on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (12W 4D 12L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 9D 15L from 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.02 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 20W 7D 29L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 29L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Haugesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.43 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Lillestrom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Haugesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Haugesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 64%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Lillestrom and 54% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lillestrom's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Lillestrom's matches and 54% of Haugesund's.
Do Lillestrom and Haugesund tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Lillestrom 0-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.77 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Haugesund attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 48% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 66%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.20 PPG, Haugesund 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.