Lillestrom vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Brann's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.59 xG and Brann 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.871 / defence 1.004 | Brann attack 0.708 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Data: 7 Lillestrom games / 40 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 28% | Brann 18%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 5.56. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 28% | Brann 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Lillestrom 1.59 / Brann 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.871 / def 1.004 | Brann attack 0.708 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 54% chance of winning, Brann a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Brann away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.71x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.58
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.43
0.84
Brann xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
26.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.84 for Brann, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Brann
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 0, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Lillestrom and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.59 xG and Brann 0.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Brann landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Brann attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 54% | Draw 28% | Brann 18%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.