Lillestrom vs Brann – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brann in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Brann have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lillestrom's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 44% versus Brann 74%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 52% | Brann 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.36 xG and Brann 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.858 / defence 1.123 | Brann attack 0.903 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.503. Data: 22 Lillestrom games / 52 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Brann 40%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Brann 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Lillestrom 1.36 / Brann 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.858 / def 1.123 | Brann attack 0.903 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Brann (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 32% chance of winning, Brann a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 4W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Brann (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.90x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
32%
3.13
28%
3.51
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.88
1.52
Brann xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.52 for Brann, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 11W 3D 9L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 9W 2D 12L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.26 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.74 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 2D 12L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.45 PPG; Brann away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brann in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Brann 1-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Lillestrom, 73% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Lillestrom and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lillestrom's games and 73% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.