KFUM Oslo 2-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KFUM Oslo face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
KFUM Oslo's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KFUM Oslo's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.00 for Lillestrom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for KFUM Oslo, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2024, ended KFUM Oslo 1–2 Lillestrom — a Lillestrom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 63% versus Lillestrom 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 47% | Lillestrom 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.686 / defence 1.068 | Lillestrom attack 0.904 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.304. KFUM Oslo's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KFUM Oslo's projected output up. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 19 games and Lillestrom's last 50.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 36%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.69 | Draw 3.74 | Lillestrom 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KFUM Oslo 60% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 21 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG KFUM Oslo 1.28 / Lillestrom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.686 / def 1.068 | Lillestrom attack 0.904 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lillestrom xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 30 August 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom?
KFUM Oslo 2 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 21) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 37% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.69) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.90x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 19 games and Lillestrom's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.74
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.54
1.26
Lillestrom xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.26 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 8D 5L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.05 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
KFUM Oslo's home form reads 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.37 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 10 away games (4W 0D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.16 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 0.80 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.20 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Lillestrom have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: KFUM Oslo 1-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 60%, Lillestrom 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (KFUM Oslo) and 70% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 30% of games; Lillestrom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of KFUM Oslo's games and 50% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 70% of Lillestrom's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 70% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Lillestrom 2-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Lillestrom attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 19/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 36%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 47%, Lillestrom 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lillestrom's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.37 PPG, Lillestrom 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.