jerv 1-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this jerv vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
jerv and Ham-Kam meet at J.J. Ugland Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
jerv (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. jerv have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 0.98 xG and Ham-Kam 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.608 / defence 1.181 | Ham-Kam attack 0.860 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.449. jerv's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 jerv games / 9 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 25% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 49%. Fair-value odds: jerv 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 2.04. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 25% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG jerv 0.98 / Ham-Kam 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.608 / def 1.181 | Ham-Kam attack 0.860 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
jerv xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs Ham-Kam kick off?
jerv vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs Ham-Kam?
jerv 1 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is jerv vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs Ham-Kam part of?
jerv vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 25% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both jerv and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are jerv and Ham-Kam in?
jerv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates jerv's attack at 0.61x the league average against Ham-Kam's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.86x) against jerv's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
25%
3.97
26%
3.80
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
jerv xG
Total xG
2.45
1.47
Ham-Kam xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.31
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are jerv and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for jerv and 1.47 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
jerv
0
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Ham-Kam?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 0, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2022, when Ham-Kam 2-1 jerv.
Who has won more matches between jerv and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out jerv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat jerv 1-2 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 0.98 xG and Ham-Kam 1.47 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.61 / defence 1.18 against Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 25% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 49%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.