Haugesund 1-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 8 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 3D 2L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Tromso's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.60 (Tromso). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Haugesund, 1 for Tromso and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 60% and Tromso 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | Tromso 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.04 xG and Tromso 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.898 / defence 0.916 | Tromso attack 0.969 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. Tromso's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Haugesund games / 37 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 33% | Tromso 34%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Tromso 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 80% | Tromso 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 33% | Tromso 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Haugesund 1.04 / Tromso 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.898 / def 0.916 | Tromso attack 0.969 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Tromso (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Tromso xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Tromso.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 33% chance of winning, Tromso a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
Record (4 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
33%
3.02
33%
3.01
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.10
1.05
Tromso xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.05 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 19W 16D 25L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 18L across 60 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.22 PPG, Tromso on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 14W 7D 9L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tromso's away record stands at 7W 13D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.32 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tromso in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Tromso have gone 18W 24D 18L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Tromso away?
Haugesund's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.63 PPG; Tromso away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 63%, Tromso at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 53% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 53% of Tromso's.
Do Haugesund and Tromso tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Tromso in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.04 xG and Tromso 1.05 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Tromso attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 33% | Draw 33% | Tromso 34%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, Tromso 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.22 PPG, Tromso 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.