Haugesund 0-5 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Haugesund at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Stromsgodset.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Haugesund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Haugesund's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Stromsgodset's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Haugesund 0–0 Stromsgodset — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Haugesund — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 45% versus Stromsgodset 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 47% | Stromsgodset 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.45 xG and Stromsgodset 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.911 / defence 0.989 | Stromsgodset attack 0.930 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.075. Data: built from Haugesund's last 31 games and Stromsgodset's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Haugesund 48% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 26%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.09 | Draw 3.78 | Stromsgodset 3.89. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Stromsgodset's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 20% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Haugesund 31 games, Stromsgodset 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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