Haugesund 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 55% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.70 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.983 / defence 1.420 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.609 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.391. Data: 20 Haugesund games / 20 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.70. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Haugesund 1.70 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.983 / def 1.420 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.609 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 2 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 49% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.98) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.16
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.20 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 6W 4D 10L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 8W 3D 9L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sarpsborg 08 FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 30%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.56 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Haugesund and 56% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Haugesund's recent matches and 44% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Haugesund's matches and 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.70 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.42 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 49% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.