Haugesund vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.40 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Rosenborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.64 xG and Rosenborg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.954 / defence 1.073 | Rosenborg attack 0.925 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Haugesund games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 1.64 / Rosenborg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.954 / def 1.073 | Rosenborg attack 0.925 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Rosenborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 43% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.95x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.76
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.97
1.34
Rosenborg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.34 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 6D 13L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 53% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%; Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Haugesund's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 53% of Rosenborg's.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.64 xG and Rosenborg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Rosenborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 30%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.