Haugesund 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 1D 4L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Haugesund, 4 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Brann trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 45% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 47% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.17 xG and Brann 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.669 / defence 1.277 | Brann attack 1.216 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.357. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Haugesund games / 38 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 21% | Draw 21% | Brann 59%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Brann (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 20% | Brann 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 21% | Draw 21% | Brann 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 1.17 / Brann 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.669 / def 1.277 | Brann attack 1.216 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Brann (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Brann xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 21% chance of winning, Brann a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Record (8 meetings): Haugesund 3W | Draws 1 | Brann 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Brann (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.67) and Brann's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
21%
4.87
21%
4.84
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.28
2.11
Brann xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
12%
8.23
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
2%
40.06
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Haugesund and 2.11 for Brann, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 13D 29L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 36W 12D 12L from 60 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (13W 3D 14L).
On the road, Brann have gone 15W 7D 8L from 30 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Brann have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Brann in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 40%, Brann 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Haugesund) and 57% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brann in 33%; Haugesund have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Haugesund's recent matches and 57% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Haugesund's recent games and 57% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Brann tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Brann in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.17 xG and Brann 2.11 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.28 against Brann attack 1.22 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 21% | Draw 21% | Brann 59%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 47%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.