Ham-Kam 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 4D 3L at Briskeby Arena — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Valerenga — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 0 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Valerenga trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 71% versus Valerenga 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 47% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.14 xG and Valerenga 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.643 / defence 0.970 | Valerenga attack 1.173 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.369. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Ham-Kam games / 47 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 28% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 47%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 2.13. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 44% | Valerenga 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 28% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Ham-Kam 1.14 / Valerenga 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.643 / def 0.970 | Valerenga attack 1.173 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Valerenga xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 28% chance of winning, Valerenga a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.64x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
28%
3.58
25%
3.97
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.70
1.56
Valerenga xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.56 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 9D 5L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.71 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 3W 9D 5L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 8W 2D 7L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.11 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 44%, Valerenga 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ham-Kam) and 56% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 44% of games; Valerenga in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 56% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 56% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Ham-Kam and Valerenga drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.14 xG and Valerenga 1.56 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.64 / defence 0.97 against Valerenga attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 28% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 47%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 47%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.