Ham-Kam 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ham-Kam face Kristiansund BK.

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Fixture Analysis

Ham-Kam welcome Kristiansund BK to Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 30 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 0.90 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Ham-Kam 1–0 Kristiansund BK — a Ham-Kam win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 41% versus Kristiansund BK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 34% | Kristiansund BK 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.898 / defence 1.000 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.950 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.223. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 30 games and Kristiansund BK's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 3.81 | Kristiansund BK 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 20% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Ham-Kam 30 games, Kristiansund BK 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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