Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 6W 1D 3L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Rosenborg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2026, ended 0–4 with Rosenborg winning.
It is worth noting that Rosenborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 48% versus Rosenborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 46% | Rosenborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.42 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.796 / defence 0.847 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 48 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 41% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Fredrikstad 60% | Rosenborg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 41% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Fredrikstad 1.42 / Rosenborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.796 / def 0.847 | Rosenborg attack 1.048 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg part of?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 41% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fredrikstad and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.80x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.05x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.84
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
Rosenborg xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.26 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 19W 11D 18L from 48 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 18L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.38 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 4D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Rosenborg away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.78 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 56%, Rosenborg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fredrikstad) and 56% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 30%; Rosenborg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 35% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 56% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.