Bryne 3-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bryne at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bryne face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Bryne Stadion to face Bryne in Eliteserien (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Haugesund (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 1.12 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 0.706 / defence 1.101 | Haugesund attack 0.837 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Bryne's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Bryne's last 2 games and Haugesund's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 2.76 | Draw 3.44 | Haugesund 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bryne at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bryne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Bryne 2 games, Haugesund 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bryne 1.12 / Haugesund 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 0.706 / def 1.101 | Haugesund attack 0.837 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Bryne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Haugesund xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bryne vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Bryne vs Haugesund kick off?
Bryne vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Haugesund?
Bryne 3 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Bryne vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Haugesund part of?
Bryne vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 36% chance of winning, Haugesund a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bryne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bryne and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bryne vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bryne's attack rating (0.71) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.84x) against Bryne's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Bryne's last 2 games and Haugesund's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bryne Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.44
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Bryne xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
Haugesund xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bryne vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bryne and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Bryne and 1.09 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Bryne (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bryne
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 30 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bryne
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Bryne vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Haugesund?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bryne have won 2, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2025: Haugesund 1-4 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Haugesund?
Bryne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bryne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bryne beat Haugesund 3-1 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.12 xG and Haugesund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bryne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Haugesund attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 36% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 35%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.