Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.71 xG and Tromso 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.311 / defence 0.907 | Tromso attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Bodo/Glimt games / 0 Tromso games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 72% | Draw 17% | Tromso 11%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Tromso 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.71 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 72% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 72% | Draw 17% | Tromso 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.71 / Tromso 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.311 / def 0.907 | Tromso attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Tromso xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 72% chance of winning, Tromso a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bodo/Glimt home split: 3.00 PPG from 10 | GF 4.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.31x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.85x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.96
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.75
1.04
Tromso xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
7%
15.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
1%
132.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.04 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Tromso 3-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.71 xG and Tromso 1.04 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tromso landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 72% | Draw 17% | Tromso 11%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.